Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Election 2009 and the 2012 Prospects

Last night, after the premier of the rebooted version of V (I'll try to cover that over on the other blog), I flipped over to Fox News for the first extended period in a while, to see what had happened in the various off-year races.  Needless to say, I was pleased to see the GOP sweep in Virginia and boot Corzine out of New Jersey.  Closer to home, the Dayton, Ohio mayoral race saw an independent replace liberal legacy candidate Rhine McLin.  And in New York, the race was close until late, seeing the Democrat beat out the third party conservative candidate (after the McCain Republican quit and threw her support behind the Democrat).
Now I've been listening and reading about the various victories and trying to settle on the meaning of the results.  This is what I came up with.

First of all, is this a referendum on the first year of Obama?  Not really.  It's as much a dissatisfaction with the incompetents in power as well as the incessant growth of government. as it is a reflection of the national scene.  In this, it's merely a warning that the course that the various liberal leaders are not as secure as what would have appeared last year when the GOP was swept significantly out of power.

Here's a good article about 10 key races.  Let's look at a few of the specifics.  First, New Jersey.

This is probably the race most closely tied to the White House, as Obama had come to Jersey to campaign for Corzine several times.  Now I don't know the political specifics of governor-elect Chris Christie, but the fact he took the Democrat-heavy state and beat the incumbent governor means, most specifically, that Obama does not have coattails.  It's going to really be up to the candidates and not a nationally-driven sweep.  In short, Obama's aura is thankfully thin.

The NY race was not necessarily about who won (because it was an obvious clusterfuck).  But the fact that the GOP candidate, Dede Scozzafava (or Scuzzyfucker) was driven out of the race, then endorsed the Democrat, and the Conservative party candidate, Doug Hoffman, came close, with no help from the establishment GOP, indicates that the base of the party has finally started booting out the candidates that are no different than Democrats.  That means more conservative candidates could come down the pike.  And since all my liberal blogger buddies think the GOP's key to success is to play to the middle, the potential shift of the party to the right is encouraging.

Gay Marriage and Marijuana: It's a mixed bag.  the social conservatives scored a victory in Maine with the overturning of the gay marriage law, but medical marijuana passed, and Washington state expanded gay rights to everything else.  What this tells me is that we're conservative and gradual in our approach, but the position of hard-line social conservatism is not the winning issue in most of the country anymore.   The pace of those changes will be slow but inevitable where the only purpose of the law is an imposition of morality when the alternative is personal freedom.

So that brings me to another subject:  The 2012 GOP candidate.

This is something I've been working on at the bottom of the blog since the 2008 election.  And since CB over at Economic Swim covered this, I figured I'd go ahead and take the time to update and check my list:
 I kind of have them in order of preference as of right now.  I'm not supporting or endorsing any of the people on the list.  But as of right now, if the election were held, I'd vote for any of them based on what I know. 

Senator DeMint has been a clear and consistent conservative voice, voted against all the bailouts, and is the second most visible of the bunch.

Representative Bachman is new to the list (after visiting CB's post) I really don't know much about her. I know she is a relative noob, and is along the same lines politically as DeMint.

Governor Jindal has been a pretty solid conservative voice, although he lost some cred with his abysmal response to Obama's joint address.  We'll see how his time in Louisiana plays out.

Sarah Palin.  She's probably the weakest of the candidates on actual conservative cred, but she has the highest name recognition and is the most panned of all by the left.  She still needs some work, but there's a couple of years to play with here. 

I put Cheney on the list in an honorary capacity for two reasons.  First, he has the attitude it will take to win and is as unapologetic as can be. Second, it pisses off the milktoast morons who think McCain was a good choice.

So if you have any comment on the potential candidates above (other than the standard Sarah blather), or if you have another candidate that should be on the list, I want to see it grow.  Criteria to get then added include:

1.  Economic conservatism.  They have to have demonstrable cred for shrinking the size and scope of government.  Big government compassionate "conservatives" need not apply.  McCain-moderates can go fuck themselves.

2. Anyone who voted for any of the Bush-Obama bailouts is out. Automatically.  It's why the Democrats control Washington now.

3.  No legacy candidates.  We need relatively fresh faces, not someone who's got a political family (like Jeb Bush) or someone who's "turn" it is (as it was with both Bob Dole and McDouche).

So make your case.  We have plenty of time.

And finally, since it's so damned funny, and since my daughter likes what happens to the animals behind the door, here's a little page about Sarah Palin.  Enjoy.


Toad734 said...

Bachman= possibly dumber than Palin. I know that is hard to fathom but shes an idiot. I would love to see her try to debate Obama. I would definitely record that one and send it out as an April fools email or something.

Jindal: That little twerp? I think all the air was let out of his tires after Obamas address. Even though he is the governor of a state like Louisiana, to people in South Carolina, Alabama, Oklahoma, Indiana, North Dakota and Alaska, he still looks like a terrorist. Not a chance.

Palin: Please please please let it be Palin. Obama is probably already making contributions to her primary campaign fund. Stupid is as stupid does. She doesn't know anything. Is this really who you want as president?? Is this whose hand you really want on the button. I mean, I know the Jesus crowd could be that much closer to Armageddon with her but thats not really good for the rest of us.

Cheney won't be alive by the next election and no one is going to make that mistake twice anyway.

I don't know much about Demint but out of this crew he definitely has the best chance.

I wouldn't rule out Jeb but then again, this isn't a monarchy so....

By the way, none of the people you mentioned besides maybe Demint, is for a smaller government. All of them want to go invade every Muslim country on the planet, or any country that threatens Israel, or any country that says bad things about us and set up bases and expand military powers to unprecedented levels. That doesn't equal a smaller, cheaper or weaker federal government. You need to get over that point once and for all.

Patrick M said...

Toad: The ones on this list are the ones that appear not to be the big government conservatives. That's not to say for certain that they aren't (Palin being the one I want to be clear on her ideas). And the one you were least insulting happens to be at the top of my list.

Although your reaction and dismissal of all of them convince me I have a good list.

At least tell me you enjoyed the palinaspresident link. :)

Toad734 said...

A good list for Obama in 2012, not for the Republican chances of winning an election. Again, maybe Demint but if his mental capacities and education put him in the same category with Bachman and Palin then bring it on. The Dems would love to debate against children whose parents let out of the homeschool recess a little too early.

What scares me are the people with the last name of Bush who have all the Muslim oil money backing them or someone like Romney who seems to actually be smart until you realize he believes in magic underwear and that Joseph Smith was the next Jesus. Someone who believes in a fairy tale more ridiculous than Christianity is a scary concept for a world leader.

Toad734 said...

So in the 2 seconds I was on the Demint link on your page I learned he was from South Carolina...strike one, and he is one of those people who actually think that the Government has taken over the banking industry and wants to take over private corporations...Strike two for just being uneducated....I am sure there is a strike three if I were to hear him give a speech or read more than 2 lines about his positions.

Sure, lower taxes and lower government spending would be great but then why did he vote for the Iraq war?? Hypocrite! Oh, that would be strike 3.

Patrick M said...

Toad: The Bush family is out because we've had them for 12 years. Period. Romney is questionable for his conservatism (although vs McCain, he was a staunch conservative).

As for Jim DeMint:

First, you dismiss someone because of where they live? How provincial. That would be like the GOP dismissing a candidate from California for being from California (with a very different 1980's). Damn, how provincial you are.

Second, the government is horribly entangled in the banking industry and is gaining more control over private industry with each bill (including in the Healthscare monstrosity). If he gets that, good.

Why would be voting for a war that you believe is necessary (remember, this is based on what information we all had at the time) be hypocritical? While less and smaller government is a good thing, one reasonable function of that government is fighting enemies. And that's what the Senate was voting overwhelmingly to do, even if it proved to be a mess.

Toad734 said...

Until 2008 every candidate since Reagan was dismissed because they weren't a southerner. I am tired of the most backwards part of our country electing our Presidents. And people from South Carolina can be fine, politicians from South Carolina have a real bad track record and typically end up being the ones who would be in the Klan, support Jim Crowe laws and think the 10 Commandments should be part of the Constitution. How many of those TV evangelicals are from SC?? That state practically invented racism, segregation and racial profiling. They still have the stars and bars on their flag and think that its a good thing. Their University's mascot is a cock...Do i need to keep going?

Patrick M said...

No Toad, you don't. You've said enough to prove my point beyond a shadow of a doubt. You make snap assessments of people by what groups they can be pigeonholed in. I take each person by his positions on each issue free associations and make an assessment regardless of grouping.