Monday, January 28, 2008

Predictions for Florida

True story. I spent Election night in 2000 at the local GOP headquarters watching returns. By 9pm, I had said something to the effect that the Presidency would be decided in Florida, after they had called the state for Al Gore, then withdrew the call. And you know how that turned out...a month later. Thus, coming up on the eight-year anniversary I shall have for you my predictions in Florida for the primary there. I'd have this up on Tuesday, but the blogosphere will be humming with State of the Union discussion tomorrow morning. I will be no exception. So here we go....

First of all, the Democrats have taken away all the delegates, so Obama and Edwards have pulled out. This means Hillary Clinton will win the state by default. But, her victory will be slimmer than the pundits say, and won't give her a bounce. Because, finally, it appears that the politics that the Clintons assaulted us from 1992 to the present is finally beginning to turn on them. I'm thinking the time has finally come for new blood for the Democrats. I'm predicting that there will be a rush of endorsements for Obama from Wednesday after Florida up to Super Tuesday. But it won't be enough for him to win outright. Which leaves it to John Edwards to decide, with his delegates, to decide who will become the nominee. If I'm wrong, it will be because Obama will win the nomination.

On the Republican front, Rudy Giuliani will be eliminated from the race, but he will do better than Huckabee. And Mitt Romney will narrowly Defeat John McCain. And I mean narrowly. But, since it's a winner-take-all-delegates state, it will be a big win for Romney, and will swing the momentum his way. I think the winner of Florida will also win the nomination.

Either way, it will be an interesting day.

But on to the event of the day. I'm guessing Bush will be cautious, not claim victory in Iraq, throw out a lot of populist programs to salvage his popularity, and be designed to steel the party. Either way, I doubt it will be a great address. So I found a better address: Reagan's State of the Union Address from 1992. The specific situations are different, but the spirit and ideas that will save us in the coming four years are there for all to read:
First, we must understand what's happening at the moment to the economy. Our current problems are not the product of the recovery program that's only just now getting under way, as some would have you believe; they are the inheritance of decades of tax and tax, and spend and second, because our economic problems are deeply rooted and will not respond to quick political fixes, we must stick to our carefully integrated plan for recovery. And that plan is based on four common-sense fundamentals: continued reduction of the growth in Federal spending, preserving the individual and business tax deductions that will stimulate saving and investment, removing unnecessary Federal regulations to spark productivity and maintaining a healthy dollar and a stable monetary policy the latter a responsibility of the Federal Reserve System.
Too many of us, especially those who have governed, have forgotten this. We need to keep reminding them at the ballot box.

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