Monday, November 1, 2010

The Illustrious One's 2010 Predictions

Okay, it's Monday, lunchtime, and I have narrowed it down and have looked into the future that is tomorrow's election (and asked my mom, who is a political barometer).  And now, finally, I can publish, in shiny detail, my predictions for tomorrow's election, with a little Ohio-centric focus (being the resident of said Great State that I am).

First of all, let me just talk about how I'm voting in the state and federal races. 

If you were to look at the candidates I'm voting for and attribute a letter of the alphabet that most reflects my choices tomorrow, it's going to be a L!  Because in many of the races, contested or otherwise, there are Libertarian party candidates.  And where I can, I will be voting that way, because where it matters (the congressional races), there's no question who's going to win.  And since the GOP is doing lots of things that make me certain they haven't learned the lessons of 2006 and 2008, they don't deserve shit, including my vote.  Now that doesn't mean I'm not voting for any Republicans, but there doesn't appear to be any reason for me to be loyal to them anymore.  This time, it will be reflected in my ballot.

So onto the predictions:

The House

I've been checking the RCP polls and maps for the last few days.  And even if all the tossups go to the Democrats, the GOP will be getting control of the House this year.  It's just a matter of whether it will be in the historic range or not.  Based on the generic ballot, and a general unrest with the current direction of the country, I'm predicting the GOP will get that historic win, primarily through the efforts of the Tea Party movement (and not the inbred soul of the GOP).  That includes the reelection of my congressman, Jim Jordan (R) (who's in a safe seat).  However, while I'm generally satisfied with Rep Jordan's voting record, I will be voting for the Libertarian candidate, Donald Kissick, simply because Jim Jordan has never really had a challenge since he was elected.

The Senate

The Senate will be closer.  And while they will gain seats, I'm going to predict that the GOP will not gain control of the Senate.  At best, they will get 50 seats, which means Democrat control due to Vice President Biden (who breaks those pesky ties).  Locally, Rob Portman, the Republican candidate will easily win, succeeding the worthlessness of a RINO that is George Voinovitch.  And as there isn't a Libertarian candidate, he will probably get my vote as well. 

The Governor of Ohio

This is the one that I couldn't predict until today.  Democrat incumbent Ted Strickland is facing Republican challenger John Kasich.  I had been predicting that, due to Strickland's association with Obama and the general tide for Republicans, the nail-bitingly close race was going to swing to Kasich.  However, I believe that the anger of the gun vote with Kasich over the last few days is a game-changer.  And based on that, I predict that Ted Strickland will be reelected to his second term as governor.  As for my vote, I've been following these things as well, and while my vote was wavering for Kasich, it is now moving to Libertarian candidate Ken Matesz.  This one was actually hard for me to decide, because the results of this election may benefit Obama in 2012.  And if I had to vote in a heads-up election, I probably would vote for Kasich, primarily because I think more might get done. 

Ohio Attorney General

Now outside of Ohio, this one has no particular interest.  Democrat Richard Cordray is likely to be reelected.  What is important is who the GOP candidate is, which will explain my vote.  For a candidate, the GOP has dragged up the carcass of a politician that is Mike DeWine.  DeWhiner is a RINO.  He is the product of political inbreeding.  He's also such a failure that he lost his Senate seat to the soon-to-be senior Senator from Ohio, Sherrod "the color of shit" Brown.  And he is the reason I'm voting for the Democrat Cordray. 

In short, this particular race is emblematic of the reason the GOP can't win unless the Democrats have pissed the voters off enough that they'll vote for someone else.  Especially when that person will talk a good conservative game.  The problem is that, with many of the GOP candidates above, they tend to be conservative until they have power.  Then they become Democrat Lite. 

Until they learn this lesson, they'll simply be the lesser of two evils.


Toad734 said...

So I don't actually mind the Republican candidate for Senate in IL, Mark Kirk. I don't know too much about the Democrat but I know that Kirk shares at least some of my views and has actually supported a lot of the same causes as Pat Quinn the current Democratic Governor but I can't take the chance of Republicans taking the Senate so I will clearly be voting for Alexi. I probably know less about Alexi than Kirk but again, I just can't go back to where we were over the last 10 years so Kirk will not get my vote. I like peace, balanced budgets, fiscal responsibility, and personal freedoms too much to let the Republicans take control again.

Patrick M said...

I like peace, balanced budgets, fiscal responsibility, and personal freedoms too much to let the Republicans take control again.

And how, exactly, have things changed over the last 4 years, since the Democrats took control?

If it's any consolation, I don't really trust the GOP either. Of course, I also don't trust the Democrats.