Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Miscellaneous Post-New Hampshire

Ok, New Hampshire is in the can. Congratulations go out to Senators John McCain and Hillary Clinton on their victories. Now, on to analysis:

McCain's victory was no surprise. With the independent vote behind him, and the compressed primary schedule making momentum harder to change, it was a foregone conclusion. Mitt Romney benefited with his second place finish as well, as did Mike Huckabee, who came in third. However, McCain's victory will probably not translate into the momentum he would need for a serious run, due to some major votes that have angered the GOP base. I believe, at this point, the race will come down to Romney and Rudy Giuliani, with a possible challenge by Huckabee.

For the Democrats, the Clinton machine squeaked out another victory. This was the momentum Clinton needed in the wake of Iowa to keep the race going. Barack Obama came in second, falling 3% short of victory. Three things contributed to this. First of all, identity politics was alive and well, and the vote split exactly as you would expect. Second, the independents turned out for McMcain, and therefore not for Obama. And third was Hillary's weepy moment. More on that in a moment. This is now a two person race, ans will go down to the wire. It all depends on where the John Edwards supporters go. There are not enough to make a difference for him, but they could tip the balance to one of the other candidates.

The Hillary cry is the perfect example of how we view men versus women. Had a man done that, he would have been toast. In politics, tears are appropriate if you're speaking of the dead, or of past experiences that occurred in private. But women can have those moments. I think it humanized her in a way that no one could have predicted, simply because we view politics by looking at the past. After all, she is the first woman who is a serious contender for the Presidency. A woman can get emotional and not look weak. It's that simple. If she had broken down and bawled, it would have been different. I won't go into motivation or sincerity, as that is irrelevant at this point.

Anyway, we're less than four weeks from Super Tuesday. And I don't think either party will have a candidate by then. It will make things really interesting over the next month.

No comments: